WEEK 6

NFL Game Projections for Monday, October 19th, 2026

Pick a game to see its projected final score, every player's projected passing, rushing and receiving line, and each player's anytime, first and last touchdown chances, all in one place.

Monday, October 19 · 8:15 PM ET

Away

WASWashington Commanders

22.2

QB Jayden Daniels

Game Total50.5

WAS Spread+6.1

SF Spread-6.1

Home

SFSan Francisco 49ers

28.3

QB Brock Purdy

Projected Score

Team	Points	Passing TDs	Rushing TDs	Field Goals	Plays	Pass Rate	Regulars Out
WAS	22.2	1.5	0.9	1.7	62	56.7%	RBJacory Croskey-MerrittQBMarcus Mariota
SF	28.3	2.5	1.0	1.4	62	58.9%	WRDeebo Samuel Sr.

Defense vs PositionWhat each defense allows per game, 2026 · League rank: 1st allows the least, 32nd allows the most

WASvsSFDefense

Pos	Stat	Allowed Per Game	League Rank	TDs Allowed Per Game	TD League Rank
QB	Passing yards	210.8	7th	1.0	4th
RB	Rushing yards	87.0	16th	0.4	4th
WR	Receiving yards	126.8	6th	0.8	13th
TE	Receiving yards	35.6	6th	0.0	1st

SFvsWASDefense

Pos	Stat	Allowed Per Game	League Rank	TDs Allowed Per Game	TD League Rank
QB	Passing yards	266.0	28th	2.8	31st
RB	Rushing yards	73.6	5th	0.4	4th
WR	Receiving yards	164.2	23rd	1.4	30th
TE	Receiving yards	74.4	27th	1.4	31st

PassingProjected · click a column to sort

WASWashington Commanders

QB	Pos		Pass Yds	Pass TDs
Jayden Daniels	QB		184.9	1.5

SFSan Francisco 49ers

QB	Pos		Pass Yds	Pass TDs
Brock Purdy	QB	Longshot	271.5	2.5

RushingProjected · click a column to sort

WASWashington Commanders

Player	Pos		Carries	Rush Yds
Jayden Daniels	QB		10.4	64.2
Rachaad White	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	10.0	39.4
Austin Ekeler	RB		10.0	28.9
Craig Reynolds	RB	Practice squad	3.4	4.5

SFSan Francisco 49ers

Player	Pos		Carries	Rush Yds
Christian McCaffrey	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	16.1	73.8
Kaelon Black	RB	Longshot	6.6	22.3
Brock Purdy	QB	Longshot	3.8	17.2

ReceivingProjected · click a column to sort

WASWashington Commanders

Player	Pos		Targets	Catches	Rec Yds
Terry McLaurin	WR	Anytime TD	4.7	2.8	42.6
Stefon Diggs	WR	Questionable; Q	5.4	3.9	41.5
Chig Okonkwo	TE		4.0	2.7	26.7
Dyami Brown	WR		2.3	1.3	16.6
Antonio Williams	WR		2.7	1.6	14.8
Austin Ekeler	RB		2.1	1.4	13.4
Rachaad White	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	2.1	1.9	10.9
Treylon Burks	WR	Anytime TD	1.5	0.7	10.9

SFSan Francisco 49ers

Player	Pos		Targets	Catches	Rec Yds
Mike Evans	WR	Questionable; QAnytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	9.6	5.6	75.9
George Kittle	TE	Anytime TDMulti-TD	8.1	6.4	74.9
Christian McCaffrey	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	6.7	5.2	42.3
Kyle Juszczyk	FB	Longshot	2.1	1.6	17.8
Brandin Cooks	WR	Longshot	1.9	1.0	11.2
Jacob Cowing	WR		1.8	0.4	3.2

Anytime TDTop 6 in this game

#	Player	Pos		Team	Chance
1	Christian McCaffrey	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	67.7%
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Rushing: 0.8 expected TDs from 58.3% of team carries and 89.8% of carries inside the 5. Receiving: 0.33 expected TDs from 21.1% of team targets and 17.2% of red zone targets. First drive: 36.8% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 19.2% of the game's expected TDs. 1.13 expected TDs = 31.3% chance of 2 or more.
2	Mike Evans	WR	Questionable; QAnytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	61.3%
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Receiving: 0.95 expected TDs from 30.3% of team targets and 28.5% of red zone targets. First drive: 14.6% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 16.1% of the game's expected TDs. 0.95 expected TDs = 24.6% chance of 2 or more.
3	Rachaad White	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	WAS	46.3%
WAS projected for 2.5 TDs (1.5 passing, 0.9 rushing). Rushing: 0.48 expected TDs from 32.8% of team carries and 79.4% of carries inside the 5. Receiving: 0.14 expected TDs from 7.6% of team targets and 12.5% of red zone targets. First drive: 13.5% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 10.5% of the game's expected TDs. 0.62 expected TDs = 12.9% chance of 2 or more.
4	George Kittle	TE	Anytime TDMulti-TD	SF	41.8%
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Receiving: 0.54 expected TDs from 25.4% of team targets and 24.7% of red zone targets. First drive: 13.1% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 9.2% of the game's expected TDs. 0.54 expected TDs = 10.3% chance of 2 or more.
5	Terry McLaurin	WR	Anytime TD	WAS	29.8%
WAS projected for 2.5 TDs (1.5 passing, 0.9 rushing). Receiving: 0.35 expected TDs from 17.5% of team targets and 21.6% of red zone targets. First drive: 5% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 6% of the game's expected TDs.
6	Treylon Burks	WR	Anytime TD	WAS	26.7%
WAS projected for 2.5 TDs (1.5 passing, 0.9 rushing). Receiving: 0.31 expected TDs from 5.6% of team targets and 22.9% of red zone targets. First drive: 2.9% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 5.3% of the game's expected TDs.

First TDTop 3 in this game

#	Player	Pos		Team	Chance
1	Christian McCaffrey	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	19.0%
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Rushing: 0.8 expected TDs from 58.3% of team carries and 89.8% of carries inside the 5. Receiving: 0.33 expected TDs from 21.1% of team targets and 17.2% of red zone targets. First drive: 36.8% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 19.2% of the game's expected TDs. 1.13 expected TDs = 31.3% chance of 2 or more.
2	Mike Evans	WR	Questionable; QAnytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	16.0%
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Receiving: 0.95 expected TDs from 30.3% of team targets and 28.5% of red zone targets. First drive: 14.6% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 16.1% of the game's expected TDs. 0.95 expected TDs = 24.6% chance of 2 or more.
3	Rachaad White	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	WAS	9.5%
WAS projected for 2.5 TDs (1.5 passing, 0.9 rushing). Rushing: 0.48 expected TDs from 32.8% of team carries and 79.4% of carries inside the 5. Receiving: 0.14 expected TDs from 7.6% of team targets and 12.5% of red zone targets. First drive: 13.5% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 10.5% of the game's expected TDs. 0.62 expected TDs = 12.9% chance of 2 or more.

Last TDTop 3 in this game

#	Player	Pos		Team	Chance
1	Christian McCaffrey	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	19.1%
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Rushing: 0.8 expected TDs from 58.3% of team carries and 89.8% of carries inside the 5. Receiving: 0.33 expected TDs from 21.1% of team targets and 17.2% of red zone targets. First drive: 36.8% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 19.2% of the game's expected TDs. 1.13 expected TDs = 31.3% chance of 2 or more.
2	Mike Evans	WR	Questionable; QAnytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	16.0%
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Receiving: 0.95 expected TDs from 30.3% of team targets and 28.5% of red zone targets. First drive: 14.6% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 16.1% of the game's expected TDs. 0.95 expected TDs = 24.6% chance of 2 or more.
3	Rachaad White	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	WAS	10.5%
WAS projected for 2.5 TDs (1.5 passing, 0.9 rushing). Rushing: 0.48 expected TDs from 32.8% of team carries and 79.4% of carries inside the 5. Receiving: 0.14 expected TDs from 7.6% of team targets and 12.5% of red zone targets. First drive: 13.5% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 10.5% of the game's expected TDs. 0.62 expected TDs = 12.9% chance of 2 or more.

2+ TDsTop 3 in this game

#	Player	Pos		Team	Chance
1	Christian McCaffrey	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	31.3%
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Rushing: 0.8 expected TDs from 58.3% of team carries and 89.8% of carries inside the 5. Receiving: 0.33 expected TDs from 21.1% of team targets and 17.2% of red zone targets. First drive: 36.8% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 19.2% of the game's expected TDs. 1.13 expected TDs = 31.3% chance of 2 or more.
2	Mike Evans	WR	Questionable; QAnytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	24.6%
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Receiving: 0.95 expected TDs from 30.3% of team targets and 28.5% of red zone targets. First drive: 14.6% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 16.1% of the game's expected TDs. 0.95 expected TDs = 24.6% chance of 2 or more.
3	Rachaad White	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	WAS	12.9%
WAS projected for 2.5 TDs (1.5 passing, 0.9 rushing). Rushing: 0.48 expected TDs from 32.8% of team carries and 79.4% of carries inside the 5. Receiving: 0.14 expected TDs from 7.6% of team targets and 12.5% of red zone targets. First drive: 13.5% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 10.5% of the game's expected TDs. 0.62 expected TDs = 12.9% chance of 2 or more.

All PlayersEvery player's TD chances · click a column to sort

Player	Pos		Team	Anytime	First TD	Last TD	2+ TDs
Christian McCaffrey	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	67.7%	19.0%	19.1%	31.3%
Mike Evans	WR	Questionable; QAnytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	SF	61.3%	16.0%	16.0%	24.6%
Rachaad White	RB	Anytime TDFirst TDLast TDMulti-TD	WAS	46.3%	9.5%	10.5%	12.9%
George Kittle	TE	Anytime TDMulti-TD	SF	41.8%	9.4%	9.1%	10.3%
Terry McLaurin	WR	Anytime TD	WAS	29.8%	4.5%	6.0%	5.0%
Treylon Burks	WR	Anytime TD	WAS	26.7%	5.1%	5.2%	3.9%
Stefon Diggs	WR	Questionable; Q	WAS	26.3%	7.5%	5.2%	3.8%
Brandin Cooks	WR	Longshot	SF	24.1%	2.3%	4.7%	3.2%
Jayden Daniels	QB		WAS	23.2%	4.9%	4.5%	2.9%
Kyle Juszczyk	FB	Longshot	SF	19.7%	2.6%	3.7%	2.1%
Austin Ekeler	RB		WAS	18.6%	5.2%	3.5%	1.8%
Dyami Brown	WR		WAS	9.0%	0.8%	1.6%	0.4%
Antonio Williams	WR		WAS	8.6%	0.8%	1.5%	0.4%
Brock Purdy	QB	Longshot	SF	8.3%	1.5%	1.5%	0.4%
Kaelon Black	RB	Longshot	SF	6.7%	1.1%	1.2%	0.2%
Jacob Cowing	WR		SF	5.8%	2.2%	1.0%	0.2%
Chig Okonkwo	TE		WAS	4.5%	1.1%	0.8%	0.1%
Craig Reynolds	RB	Practice squad	WAS	4.4%	0.4%	0.8%	0.1%

LongshotsOutside his team's top 3 by TD chance, but used near the goal line in the team's last 3 games

Player	Pos		Team	Anytime	Red Zone Use
Brandin Cooks	WR	Longshot	SF	24.1%	1
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Receiving: 0.28 expected TDs from 5.9% of team targets and 14.8% of red zone targets. First drive: 0% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 4.7% of the game's expected TDs.
Kyle Juszczyk	FB	Longshot	SF	19.7%	1
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Receiving: 0.2 expected TDs from 6.6% of team targets and 10.6% of red zone targets. First drive: 1.4% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 3.7% of the game's expected TDs.
Luke Farrell	TE	Longshot	SF	10.3%	1
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Receiving: 0.11 expected TDs from 2.5% of team targets and 4.1% of red zone targets. First drive: 1.6% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 1.9% of the game's expected TDs.
Brock Purdy	QB	Longshot	SF	8.3%	1
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Rushing: 0.09 expected TDs from 13.6% of team carries and 8.3% of carries inside the 5. First drive: 6.9% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 1.5% of the game's expected TDs.
Kaelon Black	RB	Longshot	SF	6.7%	1
SF projected for 3.4 TDs (2.5 passing, 1 rushing). Rushing: 0.07 expected TDs from 23.8% of team carries and 0% of carries inside the 5. First drive: 9.3% of the team's first-drive targets and carries. 1.2% of the game's expected TDs.

OutliersProjected well above or below his own 2026 average

Player	Pos	Team	Stat	Projected	2026 Avg	+/-vs 2026 Avg
Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	Rushing yards	28.9	14.0	+106.1%
SF allows fewer yards on his run types than the defenses he has faced (×0.85). His runs: Inside 52%, Outside 48%. Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Projected 10 carries vs his 2026 average of 3.5.
Jordan Watkins	WR	SF	Receiving yards	6.5	20.0	-67.3%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (4 g). Projected 0.4 targets vs his 2026 average of 0.7.
Kyle Juszczyk	FB	SF	Receptions	1.6	1.0	+61.3%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (13 g). Projected 2.1 targets vs his 2026 average of 1.5.
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	Receiving yards	42.3	27.4	+54.4%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (14 g). Projected 6.7 targets vs his 2026 average of 5.
George Kittle	TE	SF	Receptions	6.4	4.2	+53.5%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (12 g). Projected 8.1 targets vs his 2026 average of 5.6.
Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	Receiving yards	14.8	31.0	-52.2%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (4 g). Projected 2.7 targets vs his 2026 average of 4.4.
Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	Receiving yards	10.9	21.5	-49.5%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (4 g). Projected 1.5 targets vs his 2026 average of 2.8.
Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	Receptions	1.6	3.0	-46.8%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (4 g). Projected 2.7 targets vs his 2026 average of 4.4.
Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	Receptions	1.4	1.0	+44.1%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (3 g). Projected 2.1 targets vs his 2026 average of 1.5.
Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	Receptions	0.7	1.3	-42.7%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (4 g). Projected 1.5 targets vs his 2026 average of 2.8.
George Kittle	TE	SF	Receiving yards	74.9	53.6	+39.7%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (12 g). Projected 8.1 targets vs his 2026 average of 5.6.
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	Receptions	5.2	3.8	+37.3%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (14 g). Projected 6.7 targets vs his 2026 average of 5.
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	Rushing yards	39.4	29.5	+33.5%
SF allows fewer yards on his run types than the defenses he has faced (×0.93). His runs: Inside 60%, Outside 40%. Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Projected 10 carries vs his 2026 average of 7.3.
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	Rushing yards	17.2	25.6	-32.8%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Projected 3.8 carries vs his 2026 average of 5.