Scoring
PointsAverage of the team's points per game and the points this opponent allows per game. Each average is 60% his last 3 games + 40% his 2026 season, then combined with 2025 counted as 4 games' worth.
TDs(Projected points − 3 × field goals per game) ÷ 7.
Passing TDsProjected touchdowns × passing share. Passing share = average of the team's share of TDs by passing and the share this opponent allows by passing.
Rushing TDsProjected touchdowns minus projected passing touchdowns.
Field GoalsTeam's field goals made per game (blended 2026 + 2025). Not adjusted for the opponent.
Points Per GameTeam's points scored per game (blended 2026 + 2025).
Points Allowed Per GamePoints this opponent gives up per game (blended 2026 + 2025).
Regulars OutPlayers listed out who are regulars: 50%+ of snaps, or 10%+ of team targets or carries.
Plays
PlaysAverage of the team's plays per game and the plays this opponent allows per game. Runs and passes only (includes sacks and scrambles).
Pass Rate (Projected)Average of the team's neutral pass rate and the neutral pass rate offenses use against this opponent. Dropbacks ÷ plays.
Pass AttemptsProjected plays × projected pass rate × the team's pass attempts per dropback.
CarriesProjected run plays + projected dropbacks × the team's scramble rate.
Plays Per GameTeam's runs + passes per game (blended 2026 + 2025).
Pass Rate (Team)Team's dropbacks ÷ plays in neutral situations. Neutral situations = win probability between 20% and 80% with more than 2 minutes left in the half.
Plays Allowed Per GameRuns + passes offenses run against this opponent per game (blended 2026 + 2025).
Pass Rate FacedDropbacks ÷ plays by offenses against this opponent in neutral situations. Neutral situations = win probability between 20% and 80% with more than 2 minutes left in the half.
Where TDs Come From
Rushing: Inside the 5Of the team's rushing TDs, the share that came from the opponent's 5-yard line or closer.
Rushing: The 6 to the 20Of the team's rushing TDs, the share that came from the 6 to the 20.
Rushing: 21+ Yards OutOf the team's rushing TDs, the share that came from 21+ yards out.
Passing: Red ZoneOf the team's passing TDs, the share thrown from the opponent's 20 or closer.
Passing: Outside the Red ZoneOf the team's passing TDs, the share thrown from outside the 20.
Heat Scale
LowHigh