NFL Player Prop Outliers for Monday, October 19th, 2026

Players projected well above or below their own 2026 average in receptions, receiving yards, rushing yards or passing yards this week, and the reasons behind each projection.

14 outliers

OutliersProjected well above or below his own 2026 average · click a column to sort

Player	Pos	Team	Game	Stat	Projected	2025 Avg	2026 Avg	+/-vs 2026 Avg
Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	WAS@SF	Rushing yards	28.9	21.5	14.0	+106.1%
SF allows fewer yards on his run types than the defenses he has faced (×0.85). His runs: Inside 52%, Outside 48%. Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Projected 10 carries vs his 2026 average of 3.5.
Jordan Watkins	WR	SF	WAS@SF	Receiving yards	6.5	6.5	20.0	-67.3%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (4 g). Projected 0.4 targets vs his 2026 average of 0.7.
Kyle Juszczyk	FB	SF	WAS@SF	Receptions	1.6	1.4	1.0	+61.3%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (13 g). Projected 2.1 targets vs his 2026 average of 1.5.
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	WAS@SF	Receiving yards	42.3	54.4	27.4	+54.4%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (14 g). Projected 6.7 targets vs his 2026 average of 5.
George Kittle	TE	SF	WAS@SF	Receptions	6.4	5.2	4.2	+53.5%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (12 g). Projected 8.1 targets vs his 2026 average of 5.6.
Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	WAS@SF	Receiving yards	14.8	—	31.0	-52.2%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (4 g). Projected 2.7 targets vs his 2026 average of 4.4.
Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	WAS@SF	Receiving yards	10.9	16.3	21.5	-49.5%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (4 g). Projected 1.5 targets vs his 2026 average of 2.8.
Antonio Williams	WR	WAS	WAS@SF	Receptions	1.6	—	3.0	-46.8%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (4 g). Projected 2.7 targets vs his 2026 average of 4.4.
Austin Ekeler	RB	WAS	WAS@SF	Receptions	1.4	2.5	1.0	+44.1%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (3 g). Projected 2.1 targets vs his 2026 average of 1.5.
Treylon Burks	WR	WAS	WAS@SF	Receptions	0.7	1.3	1.3	-42.7%
Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Target share uses only games with Jayden Daniels (4 g). Projected 1.5 targets vs his 2026 average of 2.8.
George Kittle	TE	SF	WAS@SF	Receiving yards	74.9	57.1	53.6	+39.7%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (12 g). Projected 8.1 targets vs his 2026 average of 5.6.
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	WAS@SF	Receptions	5.2	6.0	3.8	+37.3%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Target share uses only games with Brock Purdy (14 g). Projected 6.7 targets vs his 2026 average of 5.
Rachaad White	RB	WAS	WAS@SF	Rushing yards	39.4	33.6	29.5	+33.5%
SF allows fewer yards on his run types than the defenses he has faced (×0.93). His runs: Inside 60%, Outside 40%. Teammates out: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB), Marcus Mariota (QB). Projected 10 carries vs his 2026 average of 7.3.
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	WAS@SF	Rushing yards	17.2	16.3	25.6	-32.8%
Teammates out: Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR). Projected 3.8 carries vs his 2026 average of 5.