TD Board
Anytime1 − e^(−projected total touchdowns). Chance of at least one rushing or receiving TD.
First TDChance any TD is scored in the game × his share of the game's expected TDs, weighted 50/50 toward his first-drive usage.
Last TDChance any TD is scored in the game × his share of the game's expected TDs.
2+ TDs1 − e^(−total TDs) × (1 + total TDs): the chance of at least two rushing or receiving TDs, from the same expected TDs as the anytime chance. Example: 0.6 expected TDs = 12%.
Rank on Team1 = most likely on his team to score.
Candidates
Anytime TDOne of the top 6 anytime TD chances in his game (same as the Game page's TD Picks).
First TDOne of the top 3 first TD chances in his game.
Last TDOne of the top 3 last TD chances in his game.
Multi-TDHis chance of 2+ TDs is 10% or more (roughly an anytime chance of 41%+).
LongshotOutside his team's top 3 by touchdown chance, but had at least one red zone target or inside-the-10 carry in the team's last 3 games.
WhyWhat drives his TD chances: team projected TDs, his share of team carries and carries inside the 5, his share of targets and red zone targets, first-drive use, and his share of the game's expected TDs.
Heat Scale
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